Forecast Scorecard: Who Forecasts Lethbridge Best?

November 2026 standings

How it works

• The forecasters: our own station’s forecast (made every hour from the station’s readings in West Lethbridge), Environment Canada’s official Lethbridge forecast, and the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (yr.no), which mostly uses the European weather model.
• Why Norway? Norway’s national weather service, the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, runs yr.no and shares its forecasts for any place on Earth, free. Its forecasts are built mainly on the European weather model, which is widely considered the most accurate global forecast model in the world. So the Norwegian forecast stands in for “the big international models”: our backyard station, Canada’s national weather service and a world-class global model, head to head on Lethbridge weather.
• When: each afternoon after 3 pm we save every forecaster’s high and low for the next day. Saved forecasts are never changed.
• The judges: two thermometers. Our station in West Lethbridge, where many of us live, and Lethbridge Airport, Environment Canada’s official station just south of the city. The forecasters are scored against both, so nobody gets home-field advantage.
• Scoring: we add up how far off the high and the low were. Closest wins the day (ties share it). “Average miss” is how many degrees off a forecast was, on average. “Within 2°” counts days when both the high and the low were within 2 degrees.
• Keep it in perspective: one day, or even one week, doesn’t crown a winner. Every forecaster has good and bad days, and a handful of days is mostly luck. The “Days won” column shows how many days have been scored, so you can see how much there is to go on. We’ll start calling a real leader once each forecaster has about 30 days scored. The three also forecast for slightly different spots: Environment Canada for Lethbridge as a whole, our station for West Lethbridge, and Norway for a single map point in the city.
• Fair play: if a forecaster’s forecast couldn’t be saved, or a thermometer missed too many hours, that day isn’t counted for it. Nothing is estimated.

Contains information from Environment and Climate Change Canada (Open Government Licence – Canada). Norwegian forecast data from MET Norway, used under CC BY 4.0.